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Is it too early to call it a trend in Memphis Real Estate?

April, 2012 Home Sales - Memphis Area

Memphis real estate is on an upward trend, right?  Well, if you use number of units sold as  your as a measure, things are looking pretty rosy, with  a 15.3% increase in sales  4/12 over 4/11 and a 19.7% increase Year-to-date.

The good sign here, at least for the month of April, is that median prices showed a 13.7% increase, and average prices increased 11.6% over 2011. In my opinion, median prices are all tied in with inventory - if there are more inexpensive houses on the market being sold, it will skew the prices downward; less cheap houses - median prices rise.  Remember that about a third of the residences sold in this area are sold for below $50,000.

Are we out of the woods yet?

This bar graph below shows monthly sales over the past 3 years (2009-red, 2010-green, 2012-blue).  Let’s face it, 2011 was a dismal year. And we are straggling behind 2009 in unit sales.

However, a couple more positive months, and this stalwart bear will be morphing into a guardedly cautious bull.  We all want to know that values are trending up, and we all want to know what these types of stats have to do with us, and our particular situations.   I can’t end this post without saying that All Real Estate Is Micro-Local.  Consult an agent that specializes in your neighborhood and knows what’s happening right there.

Mortgage rates are still great if you are considering a purchase or re-finance.  I would like to write about some of the re-fi programs for underwater owners, but I will leave that to the experts.  There are programs available.  Contact me, and I can get you in touch with the experts.

The stats in this post are provided by the Memphis Area Association of Realtors.  Click here to download  the full report.

Original Article

March 2012 real estate sales - Memphis area

The Memphis Area Association of Realtors (MAAR) has published its two versions of March, 2012 residential sales statistics.

Take your pick

The Report Based on Recorded Deeds

MAAR usually publishes a report based on recorded deeds in Shelby, Tipton, and Fayette Counties (Tennessee) early in the month following the reporting period.

Wow, this report  shows a 21.4 YTD increase in unit sales and a 19.8% increase  Y-O-Y for March. Median and average prices are still trending downward.  That variation between average and median indicates there are still a lot of lower priced properties being sold.  Download the full report for a detailed breakdown of sales info.

The Report Based on MLS Data

Later in the month, MAAR publishes sales data for the prior month from the Multiple Listing Service, which reflects sales from areas  within the 3 county area, but also sales from other parts of west Tennessee,  eastern Arkansas and north Mississippi that MLS members are involved in.  So we are not really comparing apples to apples in these 2 reports.

The MLS report shows a more modest 8.2% sales increase Y-O-Y for March and a 14.9% YTD increase, based on units.  Average and median prices are still in a downward trend for the year, with prices significantly different from the report above. Median price for march could have been skewed by a larger number of high-priced sales or a lowered number of  reported low-priced sales.  I like to track the YTD numbers- monthly can be a bit fickle.  Download the  full report  for much more detailed information.

And there’s another player in the real estate sales numbers game

Daily News/Chandler Reports monthly sales report  is drawn from a totally different data set and has consistently provided residential sales information for many years.   Their headline for the March report read:  Home sales up 18%! - reporting sales unit numbers fairly close to MAAR’s first (recorded deeds based) report, yet with enough variation to warrant some attention.

So what is the consumer, homeowner, real estate agent to make of all of this?  Well it all depends on the data being crunched, and obviously there are at least 3 sets of data out there.  So remember what I say in this post just about every month:

ALL REAL ESTATE IS MICRO-LOCAL

Consult a professional who knows YOUR community.

Original Article

Memphis real estate sales for February, 2012 - Interesting indeed

Unit sales up

The Memphis real estate community is crowing about the sales increases thus far this year.  February’s sales report furnished by the Memphis Area Association of Realtors, and based on recorded sales in Shelby, Fayette, and Tipton Counties, showed a significant increase in units sold vs. 2011 sales.

February sales were up 31.6% over last year, and year-to-date 22.2% higher.  Great news, as far as units go.  I expect this trend to hold up for a while as buyers are feeling better about the world in general.  But there is more to the real estate market than the number of houses sold.  February saw declines in median and average sale prices.  This has been a trend for a while, average prices are down more than 10% YTD.

Foreclosures

We got a reprieve from foreclosures during much of 2011, as the banks tried to clean up the foreclosure scandals, and to control the amount  bank-owned inventory hitting the market.  Things have changed this year.

That’s right.  YTD foreclosures up 53.9% from 2011.

Memphis real estate sales report - other features

Download the full report for information on neighborhood sales and changes in sale prices.

Note that the inventory continues to drop.  This is due to a number of factors:  seasonal slowdown, sellers keeping their houses off the market until prices trend upward, REO inventory being bought up by investors, etc.   Based on supply and demand, one would think inventories this low would trigger some sort of seller’s market resulting in higher sales prices; but that doesn’t seem to be happening.

It should be interesting to see how the “busy season” (May-August) shakes out this year.   Remember, all real estate is micro-local.  If you read about national trends, and then about local trends, things can get confusing, even for real estate professionals.  So remember to concentrate on the micro-local: neighborhoods.

Please feel free to contact me if have questions about local real estate, or if you are interested in purchasing or selling a home or condo.

Full Report from MAAR

Original Article

Memphis real estate sales decline in 2011

[caption id=”attachment_19877” align=”alignleft” width=”300” caption=”For Sale www.1573Vance.com - Midtown”][/caption]

The Memphis Area Association of Realtors (MAAR) has released sales information for December and year-end, 2011.  The report contains complete information on all publicly recorded sales in Shelby, Fayette and Tipton counties, including information on pending sales and active listings.

Sales

[caption id=”attachment_19870” align=”aligncenter” width=”500” caption=”December, 2011 and year end sales summary”][/caption]

Residential unit sales were off 10% in December vs. 2010, and year-end totals lagged 2010 by 8.4% .  Both median and average sales trended down in 2011, as the market desperately sought price stability, and home buyers remained cautious.

Foreclosures

[caption id=”attachment_19871” align=”aligncenter” width=”500” caption=”Foreclosures down in 2011, but what will 2012 bring?”][/caption]

While foreclosures ruined more Christmases in 2011, with a  December increase of 67%,  foreclosures for 2011 were down by over 15% at 4,113.  There seems to be a lot of politics going on in the foreclosure arena.  Time will tell.

If you haven’t downloaded the sales report (link at end of post), you are missing a lot of real estate information on listings, pending sales, and inventory.  This would be a good one to file away since it is the end-of-year report.

One more interesting feature is the neighborhood reports.

[caption id=”attachment_19872” align=”aligncenter” width=”500” caption=”Midtown and Downtown Sales”][/caption]

Two of my specialty areas showed declines in Unit sales but increases in median and average prices, showing once again that all real estate is local - micro- local!  Download the report to see how your neighborhood is doing.

Download Full Report

Note:  In the next day or so I will be posting my Memphis Real Estate predictions for 2012 - Stay Tuned!

Original Article

Working for Commission

QUESTION:  What’s wrong with this scenario?

You need a new refrigerator. You go the big box store and are engaged by an energetic salesperson.  She knows the specs for all the models off the top of her head, but you have done some research too and ask her some questions that require studying factory specs, and a call back to you at a later time.  Within minutes you are doing everything you can to beat down the prices on the your favorite models.  You leave with the salesperson’s card, and the she calls you back in a couple of hours with the answers to all your questions, offering to fax you the information.  You are a picky shopper.  You call her with more questions.  You visit the store and the salesperson 3 more times,  spending time with “your” salesperson, while other eager buyers wait.   On one visit, you prevent her from getting her scheduled lunch break with your persistent questions.  Throughout all this the seasoned salesperson maintained her professionalism and helped you at levels far beyond your exepctations.

You see, the majority of her pay was based on commission, and it was in both of your best interests for her to establish a relationship and provide you with superior service.

A few days later the lizard part of your brain gives you the BUY signal.  As you are driving by another branch of the same big box store, you swing into the parking lot, go in, and tell the first salesperson you encounter the make and model of the refrigerator you have decided on.  He  writes it up, schedules delivery.  You whip out your credit card, and in a total of 15 minutes, you have bought yourself a refrigerator.  The salesman gets full commission for his 15 minutes of work.  The first salesperson, the one who spent  all that time with you, gets ZERO.

You run into that salesman from time to time when you are shopping at her store. You always greet her with a smile, and have even asked her advice on other appliances you will be needing in the upcoming months.

ANSWER:  Nothing.  You got what you wanted. End of story.

Lots of people depend on commissions to survive.  As a real estate agent, 100% of my income is based on commission, yet, it is not unheard of in this business to work with a home buyer for weeks, taking calls at crazy hours, juggling and re-juggling business and family schedules at their whim, establishing levels of rapport that rival those of family members, and showing them scores of properties, only to have them go to another agent to show them that ONE last house, which they buy without consulting you.  No guilt at their loyal agent making ZERO, while their second agent who probably spent all of 2 hours with them takes a 5-figure commission.

Real estate and other straight commission people don’t talk about this much.  If  you even think about it, it makes you crazy.  It’s part of the business of commission sales.  You just suck it up and go on.

I have a business card stuck in the corner of my white board from a big box store appliance salesman.  I took up a lot of his time when I was researching dishwashers a few weeks ago.  I am not quite ready to buy yet, but when I am, I know who my salesman will be.

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Original Article

Buying a mattress may be more stressful than buying a car

Shopped for a mattress lately?  The internet offers loads of shopping guides, and the stores offer so many models, it’s mind boggling.  It seems that every department store or mattress specialty store has its own line of   Simmons Beautyrest or Sealy Posturepedic sub-models, making quality and price comparison virtually impossible.  The one constant is that famous brand of “memory foam” mattresses, that seem to have the same models and prices across the board.  The folks in the mattress stores tend to lead you in the direction of that display first, probably because they cost as much as a good used car.

This is not a consumer piece -  I really don’t want to get into number of coils, stuffing, topping, and foundation.  I just wanted an  easy way to find a bed that is as comfortable as the bed in that hotel I stayed in a couple of months ago.   After all, I am going to be spending about 1/3 of my life there.

This IS a customer and sales post.  I have already reviewed The Mattress Firm in the Laurelwood Collection on Poplar on Yelp, but we had such a good consumer experience with our salesperson, Helen, at that store that I just had to mention it.  After all that research I had done on the internet, and the hotels I had called about the brands they used,  pulling  mattresses out of a rack at a warehouse store and trying them out on the floor, and going to other mattress shops, we dropped in at Helen’s store.  She waved us right on by the memory foam, explained the firmness color coding in their system, and quickly analyzed our preferences.  Did you know that even in high end bedding, some mattresses are designed for back sleepers and some for side sleepers?  We made a no-stress purchase and we’re very happy with our new bed.

So why did I write this post?  Because Helen was a great salesperson.  She wasn’t trying to sell us an expensive product.  She was using her knowledge to find us the perfect piece of comfort for our needs.  She made sure it was the right product for us.  And that’s what being a good sales person is all about, and why I will recommend Helen to anyone in search of a bed.

Original Article